Q4 2019 Real GDP Grows by 2.55% on Strong Non-Oil Sector Performance

By UDO ONYEKA

Nigeria’s real Gross Domestic Product grew year-on-year (yo-y) by 2.55 per cent to N19.53 trillion in Q4 2019, faster than 2.28 per cent growth registered in Q3 2019.

According to National Bureau of Statistics, NBS, full year 2019 real GDP grew by 2.27 per cent to N71.39 trillion (or about USD450 billion) – a little shy of IMF’s 2.30% growth estimate for 2019.

The Non-oil sector, accounting for 92.68 per cent  of total GDP, was the main driver of growth having climbed 2.26 per cent to N18.10 trillion in Q4 2019 (faster than +1.85 per cent  in Q3 2019).

The agricultural sector, which accounted for 26.09 per cent of total GDP, grew y-o-y by 2.31 per cent in Q4 2019, faster than 2.28 per cent in Q3 2019.

The financial services sector spiked by 20.18 per cent even as it accounted for 3.19 per cent of real GDP.

The oil & gas sector also grew y-o-y by 6.39 per cent, albeit slower than 6.49 per cent recorded in Q3 2019 – the sector actually recorded a quarterly plunge of -20.87 per cent  amid lower crude oil production volumes and prices.

According to Cowry Assets Management Company that Nigeria’s Q1 2020 real GDP may be negatively impacted by external shocks, especially from expected weakness in global consumption as the world battles to contain COVID-19 virus.

“Slower expansion in manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs of 59.2 (from 60.8) and 59.6 (from 62.1) in January 2020 also suggest sluggish growth for Q1 2020.

“However, we expect early implementation of the 2020 budget, especially on capex, as well as anticipated adoption of the N30,000 new minimum wage should provide some support to growth”, Cowry Assets experts said.